By
Dheerendra B Abeyaratna |
Non-banking
institutions (NBI) involved in taking
deposits from the public have been growing
both in terms of numbers as well as
volume. Such NBI ranges from finance
companies to co-operative establishments
and small business undertakings. Some
of these do not have the required permission
or a license from a regulator to accept
such deposits. On one hand the emergence
of such NBI which accept deposits is
a threat to traditional deposit takers
such as commercial banks which largely
depend on retail deposits to mobilise
funding for their growing asset portfolios.
On the other hand it poses challenges
to regulators who are required to maintain
public faith in the system thereby ensuring
protection of savers and fair dealing
in the financial market place.
Compared
to the outstanding savings and term
deposit value of Rs499 billion in commercial
banks and Rs132 billion in the National
Savings Bank (NSB), the outstanding
deposit value of NBI is estimated at
a mere Rs88 billion as at end 2002.
Although the market share of NBI is
not significant, the growing deposit
portfolio supported by highly aggressive
deposit promotion activities by NBI
is a threat to traditional deposit takers
looking to increase its liability portfolio.
In
the aftermath of the well known and
much publicised Pramuka Bank crisis,
NBI have attracted the attention of
regulators as well as public especially
with regard to the need for close supervision.
The opinion of the public is that any
institution that is engaged in deposit
mobilisation should come under the supervision
of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL)
or any other specific regulator appointed
for this purpose. Accordingly there
should be a mechanism to prevent institutions,
except for those that are under the
supervision of the regulatory authority,
from taking deposits in any form.
This
paper examines the practices adopted
by NBI in deposit mobilisation, evaluates
the role of NBI as intermediaries in
the economy and in the deposit market,
observes the challenges posed to traditional
deposit taking institutions and reviews
the need for a regulatory structure
that would take into account the distinctive
nature of such institutions.
For
the purpose of this study, NBI is defined
as all corporate bodies other than licensed
commercial banks and NSB, which accept
funds as either deposits or in any other
form. This study covers all deposit
taking institutions whether in possession
of a license or permission to accept
deposits from the public. However, the
study does not cover institutions such
as unit trusts, primary dealers and
general and life insurance companies
except for the products offered by such
institutions that carry features of
deposits and are regulated. In particular,
it will cover the following institutions:
-
Licensed specialised banks other than
NSB
-
Licensed finance companies
-
Co-operative deposit taking institutions
-
Insurance companies offering short
to medium term endowment contracts
-
Merchant banks
-
Leasing companies
-
Other companies accepting deposits
in any other form
NBI
accept deposits in different forms (except
in the form of current accounts) and
pay interest on such deposits. The following
list broadly sets out several types
of products offered by NBI in the form
of deposits.
-
Savings and term deposits including
certificates of deposits
-
Promissory
notes with maturity ranging from 3
months to 4 years
-
Life
insurance contracts with a guaranteed
maturity value after 3 to 5 years
-
Investment
contracts linked to real assets such
as gold or commercial cultivation
of wood
-
Advance
payment on credit cards account which
carry interest income for positive
balances
-
Investment
or portfolio contracts with a guaranteed
maturity value
As
at end 2002 the outstanding value of
above products with NBI was estimated
at Rs88 billion. The NBI account for
12% of the market share of total savings
and term deposit liabilities of all
commercial banks, NSB and NBI.
| |
Rs.
millions |
% |
| Commercial
Banks |
498.9 |
69.4% |
NSB
|
132.4 |
18.4% |
Liceneced
Specialized Banks |
16.9 |
2.3% |
Cooperative
Institutions |
23.7 |
3.3% |
Finance
Companies |
31.8 |
4.4% |
Others |
15.2 |
2.1% |
| |
718.8
|
|
Generally NBI offer interest rates above
those offered by commercial banks and
treasury bills. This may be to compensate
for the default risk assumed by the
depositors in NBI although higher interest
rate does not seem to be the only factors
that attract deposits to NBI.
In addition to the traditional savings
and term deposits NBI offer a wide range
of products with a view to attracting
funds. They carry extremely innovative
features to meet the needs of the clientele.
For example, promissory notes offered
by one merchant bank carries a put provision
which allows investors to withdraw the
funds before maturity.
The products also offer investors a
choice of coupling features based on
the specific need of the investor. Such
a choice is generally offered to high
net-worth customers and documentation
and back office procedures of NBI facilitate
servicing of varying featured products.
Some of the products offered by NBI
are currently not offered by commercial
banks. Investment of relatively small
amounts in commercial plantations is
an example for such an opportunity,
which may not otherwise be available
to investors in a convenient manner.
Investments in some of the products
offered by NBI may carry risks other
than those risks traditionally associated
with deposits of commercial banks. Placement
of funds in a traditional deposit carries
only interest rate risk and default
risk of such institutions. However,
some innovative products offered by
NBI may also carry the risks associated
with agriculture/plantations, commodity
price movements, etc.
Most of NBI employ a full time sales
force involved in promoting deposit
products to prospective customers. The
use of sales force varies with some
companies employing only two sales representatives
to over hundreds of investment advisors
employed by other institutions. Key
features of such a sales force are the
following.
::
Sales staff visits potential customers
at their doorsteps
::
Handles sales in the regions around
branches or the head office
::
Responsible for promoting both deposit
and lending products
::
Receives performance based pay linked
to achievement of monthly target
::
Subjected to high turnover of staff
Even though some NBI provide savings
product, etc, the use of technology
is very minimal or totally absent. Although
the Automated Teller Machines (ATM)
and Internet Banking is used to some
extent by customers of commercial banks,
none of the NBI has progressed to a
level of being able to provide technology
based channels of distribution. This
is in spite of the relevance of such
technology for deposit operations of
NBI.
In the past the use of advertising as
a medium of marketing and promotion
has been very minimal among NBI. Marketing
by NBI who frequently use advertisements
is generally limited to press and in
particular for advertising interest
rates and highlighting financial statements.
The elaborate advertising and media
campaigns such as those carried out
by commercial banks for product launches
and continuous promotions are almost
non-existent in the limited advertising
by NBI. The low level of advertising
could be attributed to the low marginal
productivity of investments expected
by investing in mass advertising due
to the lack of a wide branch network
and heavy reliance on direct sales.
Service
level of NBI is seen as being exceptionally
high compared with the service generally
provided by commercial banks. This high
level of service is necessary not only
to achieve a competitive edge in deposit
taking, but also to differentiate them
as institutions that promote lending
and other asset products that generally
carry interest rates above competing
commercial banks. Additional services
provided by some NBI are:
:: personalised
service by following up on maturities,
interest payments, etc
::
automatic payment of interest and principal
automatically to a number of accounts
with any bank
::
reduced procedures and speedy response
in administering accounts and providing
temporary facilities
With
regard to competitive practices, very
few NBI are actively adopting promotional
campaigns that give other rewards to
depositors on a lottery like those lottery
schemes widely practised by commercial
banks. There are practices by some NBIs
offering give-aways such as air tickets
and consumer durable items for depositors
of particular products during a promotion
campaign.
NBI
also offer incentives for promoting
deposits. Some institutions not only
reward employees for promoting deposits,
they also offer up-front commissions
for third parties who canvass or make
placement decisions on deposits. The
practice of giving commission to third
parties may lead to unethical practices
and to sub-optimal decisions in placing
deposits, particularly by institutional
depositors.
This
study attempts to assign credit risk
to a sample of NBI and commercial banks
and to compare the risk with the benchmark
one year deposit rate to determine whether
the differential in rates offered reflect
the risk inherent in NBI. As the risk
of the depositors with NBI would essentially
be the credit or default risk, it is
necessary to develop a tool to measure
of credit risk of NBI. It is assumed
that the credit risk would mainly be
attributed to four fundamental financial
conditions of NBI, and the ratios which
indicate such fundamentals are given
below.
:: Liquidity
- Liquid assets to gross assets (L)
:: Capital
adequacy - Equity capital to gross assets
(C)
:: Return
on assets - Earning after tax to gross
assets (E)
:: Size
factor - Gross assets value ranked (from
0-4 in descending order) based on size
(S)
It
is also assumed that in the absence
of adequate information on asset quality
of such institutions, the return on
assets may to some extend explain the
asset quality. Accordingly the measure
of risk (r) of NBI is derived as follows.
r
= 1/ (WL L + Wc C + WR E ) + S
The
“W” in the above formula
denotes the weight assigned to each
fundamental variable where WL+Wc+WR
will be equal to 1. The interest rate
for one-year deposits for interest payable
at maturity is considered a proxy for
the return on a deposit. The above information
is collected from financial statements
as at end December 2002 and analysed
in respect of a sample of 20 NBI representing
a wide range of institutions. The risk
measure as calculated above is analysed
against the one-year deposit rate offered
by such institutions. The graph illustrating
the risk return trade-off of NBI is
given below.
As
seen in the graph the deposit rates
of NBI seem to reflect the risk inherent
in NBI with a coefficient of correlation
of 51.04%. It shows that approximately
51% of the variation in interest rates
among NBI could be attributed to the
difference in default risk as measured
according to the above formula. The
study also attempts to determine whether
the relationship between interest rate
and default risk is significant. For
this purpose the regression equation
is derived as follows.
Interest
Rate = 5.20% + 0.733% X r
The
hypothesis tested was that the slope
or gradient of the above equation (of
0.733%) could be zero, as the relationship
between two variables would not be significant
if there is a possibility that the slope
could be of zero value. However, in
three alternative hypotheses testing,
the results indicated that there is
a strong relationship between the risk
of NBI and deposit rates. This seems
to indicate that there is a necessity
for NBI to offer deposit rates that
are commensurate with the default risk
for holders of such deposits. The results
of the testing and the methodology used
are described in brief in Annex I of
this paper.
 |
It
should be stressed that no evidence
from this study exist to show that interest
rates differential would be adequate
to compensate for the possible loss
arising from the default by NBI. That
is to say whether the credit premium
would be adequate to compensate for
the loss in case of closure and liquidation
of an institution. A study of that nature
will require historical information
on the probability of failure and average
losses incurred by depositors in various
categories of risk. The lack of information
relating to institutional failures of
this nature and inadequacy of the sample
make it virtually impossible to do a
study of this nature for the NBI operating
in the local market.
While
some of the deposit taking institutions
come under the supervision of the CBSL,
co-operative banks come under the supervisions
of the Commissioner of Co-operative.
Some institutions that are taking deposits
are not supervised at all while some
others are supervised in relation to
some financial activities but not in
relation to deposit mobilisation. The
dispersion of institutions under different
regulators are given below.
| |
Regulators/supervisors |
Deposit
Taking Institutions |
|
| CBSL
– Bank Supervision Department |
| CBSL
– Supervision of Non-Bank
Institutions Department |
| Department
of Co-operatives Development |
| CBSL
– Bank Supervision Department |
| Supervised
by Central Bank – Supervision
of Non-bank Institutions Department,
but not as deposit taking
institutions |
| Supervised
by Controller of Insurance,
but not as deposit taking
institutions |
| None |
|
| Licensed
Commercial and Specialised
Banks |
| Finance
Companies |
| Co-operative
Rural BanksThrift Credit Co-operative
Union |
| Sarvodaya
Shramadana Societies as non
profit organisations taking
deposits from members |
| Leasing
Companies |
| Insurance
companies providing fixed
term, guaranteed maturity
medium term contracts |
| Merchant
Banks, Unregistered Finance
Companies and other companies
taking deposits |
|
In
the case of finance companies, the objective
of the supervisor is to ensure compliance
with regulations relating to finance
companies and in particular to the under-mentioned
prudential requirements.
:: Capital
funds (share capital and reserves) to
be a minimum of 10% of total deposit
liability
:: Minimum
unimpaired capital requirement of Rs100
million
:: Single
borrower limit of 10% of capital base
(15% for a group)
:: Total
unsecured loans should not exceed 5%
of capital funds and Rs100,000 per loan
:: Related
party transactions: no lending to directors
and a limit of 15% of capital funds
to total lending to subsidiaries
:: Liquidity
assets of 15% of the deposit liability
:: Total
equity investments limit of 25% of capital
funds, 5% limit on each investment and
limits of 40% of share capital of investee
company
:: Limit
of 50% of capital funds in fixed assets
:: Revenue
recognition, provision for bad debts
and disclosures
:: Advertising
and incentive schemes for deposits
:: Maximum
interest rate paid on a deposit
On
the other hand supervision of co-operative
rural banks, which is under the preview
of the Department of Co-operative Development,
focuses mainly on the internal controls
and prudential operating practices.
The societies permitted by the Central
Bank to accept members’ deposits
on the other hand do not come under
regular supervision of any regulator.
The leasing companies will be supervised
under the Central Bank, Supervision
of Non bank Institution department,
in term of the new Leasing Act. However,
the institutions which provide leasing
facilities, unless licensed, as a bank
or finance company is not permitted
accept deposit. The prudential requirements
relating to leasing companies will be
based on the nature of risk relating
leasing business rather than deposits
business, even if they accept deposits.
As
observed above regulation and supervision
of deposit taking institutions in Sri
Lanka is fragmented and lacks co-ordination.
NBI
play a unique role in the economy and
the market and this is evident from
their practices and business models,
On
the assets side, NBI play a crucial
role in providing access to credit to
those who are otherwise unable to obtain
commercial bank funding. It is widely
accepted that through their wide network
of branches co-operative rural banks
and regional development banks provide
micro finance for individuals and village
level small businesses to meet day to
day funding needs. Most of the other
NBI also operate in relatively high
risk lending markets and are engaged
in providing funds without adequate
collateral for activities such as start
up ventures, high leverage businesses
and short term trades that carry a high
risk-return trade off. However, such
businesses are an essential component
of the national economic structure and
should be protected. As the focus of
commercial banks on lending to such
business is minimal, they are unlikely
to survive in the absence of the support
given by NBI.
Deposit
rates offered by NBI are generally higher
than the rates of commercial banks.
NBI rates are normally pegged to the
rates of NSB and commercial banks. However,
there are instances (especially following
a shift in general interest rates) when
NBI rates seem to influence the determining
of commercial banks’ rates. Since
NBI could be a formidable competitor
in the deposit market, commercial banks
may attempt to keep rates slightly below,
but closer to the rates of at least
some NBI. Therefore, the presence of
NBI may exert upward pressure on interest
rates particularly of smaller commercial
banks that compete directly with NBI.
Although no studies have been conducted
to substantiate the validity of this
hypothesis, views of decision-makers
in commercial banks provide some argument
in favour of it. These dynamics may
have helped the intermediation margin
of commercial banks, which is relatively
high at present, to be capped at a reasonable
level. This impact however, would likely
to be higher in the even that the market
share of NBI increase to a significant
level.
The
relatively high service standards maintained
by NBI may have had a positive impact
on improving the service standards of
commercial banks, at least in some segments
of business. Considering the relatively
small size of NBI viz-a-viz the dominance
of large commercial banks, no scientific
evidence is available to indicate that
the high service standards of NBI had
an impact on improving the service standards
of commercial banks in general. However,
it could be said that in segments where
NBI carry a significant market share,
high service standards have had a positive
impact on the service standards of commercial
banks. An example is the leasing business.
A key competitive factor in leasing
of vehicles is that the lead-time between
the inquiry and the release of cheque
to the vendor has to be 2-5 days irrespective
of any non-banking days that may fall
in between this period. In addition,
to succeed in the leasing business a
close informal relationship has to be
maintained with vehicle dealers and
the lessor would have to serve the client
at his doorstep. Banks which have been
able to acquire a significant market
share have done so only by matching
the above service benchmarks with competing
NBI.
The
study of the banking and non-banking
deposit institutions in advanced economies
provides guidance of future development
and best practices required by the industry.
For purposes of this paper, Australia
has been selected due to the country’s
level of advancement in the financial
services industry and focus on the domestic
market when compared with countries
such as USA, UK and Singapore.
Non-banking
institutions in Australia can be mainly
divided into the following categories.
:: Finance
companies
:: Merchant
banks and money market corporations
:: Building
societies
:: Credit
unions
:: Contractual
savings institutions and superannuation
funds
:: Authorised
money market dealers
:: Managed
funds
Since
1998, supervision of the above institutions
has been under the preview of a single
regulator, Australian Prudential Regulation
Authority (APRA). Among these institutions,
building societies and credit unions
(which accept public deposits) play
an important role at remote areas in
channelling savings and providing access
to funds. However, they are relatively
small in size. The share of financial
institutions’ assets in building
societies and credit unions is only
0.8% and 1.3%, declining from 7.2% and
1.0% as of mid 80’s. While credit
unions are institutions similar to co-operative
banks in Sri Lanka, there are no local
institutions similar to building societies,
which are involved in mortgage financing
of residential housing at regional level.
Building
societies offer a comprehensive range
of financial services in the housing
finance market. These societies are
able to maintain a growth in the market
due to obtaining funding from securitisation,
aggressive sales strategy in the home
loan market and ability to capture client
bases of major banks.
By
end March 2003 total loans and advances
of building societies stood at $12.7
billion. Of this amount housing loans
and other loans accounted for 67% and
12% respectively. The 2002 APRA survey
states that building societies presently
possess 279 full branches and 194 other
face to face service channels. There
are only 16 societies and of these only
8 retained a fully mutual structure.
Several societies have an issued share
capital and are listed on the Australian
Stock Exchange.
In
March 2003 Australia had 200 credit
unions with a total asset base of $25.4
million, of which 52% and 28% respectively
had been provided as housing loans and
other advances. Funding of these came
mainly from call and term deposits and
these accounted for 93% of total liabilities.
Brief statistics of the assets of building
societies and credit unions are given
in Annex II of this paper.
Building
societies and credit unions currently
provide vital financial services not
only in their traditional regions of
origin but also in other main capital
cities. In recent times these institutions
have undergone rapid consolidation with
some of them being merged with other
institutions and a few of them being
acquired by banks. Those who survived
are the ones who built niche markets
for their products, were able to reach
a high level of efficiency by the application
of technology and offer non-traditional
delivery channels such as ATM and ESTOP
to customers.
Further
regulation on building societies and
credit unions have been harmonised with
regulations governing banks and other
financial institutions and this has
introduced a level playing field in
the financial service industry in Australia.
In
Sri Lanka NBI play an important role
in mobilising savings and channelling
them to productive users at village
level and in informal markets. While
it is necessary to create an environment
for such institutions to thrive, there
is a need to identify those institutions
that act as NBI with the deliberate
intention of defrauding ignorant savers.
Such institutions are not only a danger
to gullible investors but they could
also damage the system and the faith
the savers would have on the system,
which is vital to ensure the stability
of the financial sector.
In
spite of the wide branch coverage of
commercial banks, in particular the
two state banks, and co-operative rural
banks, NBI continue to be able to sustain
a high growth in deposits arising due
to customer demand. Therefore, the demand
of savers and consumers to place deposits
in institutions with relatively high-risk
characteristics cannot be ignored, even
after discounting for the ignorance
of some gullible savers. No doubt there
is a market demand for such institutions
and what is urgently required is to
ensure that before a commitment is made
savers have a clear understanding of
the inherent risks associated with such
investments.
There
is a need for a regulatory and supervisory
structure that could take into account
the nature of NBI. Prudential requirements
should be enforced allowing for the
operating dynamism that NBI seem to
demonstrate and which is the very character
that enables them to play a useful and
distinctive role in the economy.
The recommended
supervisory structure should be based
on two fundamental principals.
This requires striking a balance between
protecting savers/consumers and the
objective of ensuring consumer awareness.
On the one hand while the regulator
should invest heavily in increasing
the basic knowledge required to make
financial decisions appropriate to their
circumstances, on the other hand institutions
are required to provide “clear
and objective information about specific
products and services to help them exercise
informed choice. Once the mandatory
information is provided it leads to
the principal that the regulatory system
cannot protect consumers from performance
risk, provided that risk has been appropriately
explained at the outset.”
It is necessary to ensure that institutions
would in an intelligent manner comply
with the spirit of the law, rather than
relying on narrow interpretation. The
minimal prudential standard required
for ensuring the protection of depositors
should be defined in the regulation
and adequate supervisory mechanism should
be set-up to ensure its enforcement.
Supervision
and monitoring of deposit taking institutions
whether they are commercial banks, finance
companies, co-operatives or other saving
units, should be carried out by a single
agency. This does not necessarily require
the harmonisation of regulations governing
such institutions as implemented in
USA and UK. At this stage of the industry,
it may be necessary to maintain different
prudential requirements based on the
level of development of different institutions.
However, harmonisation of prudential
requirements relating to all financial
institutions should be the long term
objective of regulators. Designating
one agency for overall supervision of
deposit taking institutions may ensure
consistent application of enforcement
as well as high quality of the supervision.
It has been recognised that a single
regulatory structure would “provide
a consistent approach to capital requirements
and supervision and discourage regulatory
arbitrage and achieve a level playing
field for all market participants.”
To
bring all deposit taking institutions
under a single supervising agency, amendments
to the regulation should be effected
to define the product “deposit”
to include money accepted by any institution,
with the promise to pay it back with
or without interest. The definition
should be broad enough to include raising
funds by issuing any other securities
provided it is done on a continuous
basis. Although equity type securities
which entitle the holder to a residual
value such as unit trusts should not
be considered as deposits. An attempt
should be made to restrict NBIs structuring
equity type products with returns based
on some pre-defined formula solely to
evade regulatory supervision.
The
regulatory and supervisory structure
should be organised into three main
layers to ensure the required attention
to all deposit taking institutions to
the extent that it warrants.
 |
The prudential requirement could vary
between the three layers. For example
the minimum capital requirement for
a commercial bank is Rs500 million while
for a finance company it is Rs100 million.
The third layer may have a minimum capital
requirement much below Rs100 million,
in the event that they are required
to maintain a minimum absolute capital
value at all. However, considering the
nature of each type of institution,
prior to defining the prudential requirement
relating to the third layer, considering
the nature of institutions it is appropriate
to review the difference in prudential
standards. The appropriateness of prudential
standards such as restrictions on unsecured
loans, maximum interest rates and even
minimum capital requirement (provided
capital adequacy ratio is maintained
based on the risky assets) should be
evaluated.
Presently
the supervision of co-operative rural
banks is the responsibility of the Commissioner
of Co-operative Development and it is
aimed at maintaining better corporate
governance and focuses on internal control
and operating practices. This is similar
to the corporate governance mechanism
in limited liability companies with
an external audit and internal audit
committee to ensure the protection of
shareholder interest. While the present
practice of supervision by the Commissioner
of Co-operative Development should be
continued, prudential supervision as
a deposit taking institution should
come within the proposed single supervisory
agency.
One
challenge for supervision relating to
the third layer is the large number
of bodies, societies or institutions
involved and the quality of the management
that is required to maintain compliance
with prudential requirements. However,
once the prudential requirements are
defined, consolidation of the industry
that will allow for mergers and/or closure
of institutions not able to meet required
standards should be actively encouraged.
To meet the arising supervisory challenges
the supervisory agency needs to modify
their approach under the following circumstances.
The extent of supervision, particularly
with regard to the institutions in the
third layer, should be based on the
level of risk inherent to the institution
as observed from the preliminary examination
across the industry. Due to the large
number of institutions in the third
layer, which are dispersed geographically
around the country, and the limited
resources of the supervisor, it will
become impossible to devote equal attention
to each institution. Therefore, a periodic
investigation based on the structured
risk assessment methodology should be
conducted across the industry to determine
those institutions that carry high risks
and these institutions in the high-risk
category should be given more attention.
It has been observed, by Kaufman and
Scott that “simply shutting down
of failed banks’ assets for an
indeterminate period and freezing deposits
as supervisors have often done in some
countries feeds incentives to run on
all possible affected banks at the first
suggestion of trouble. The policy of
prompt resolution of insolvent or near
insolvent banks, if properly implemented
by the supervisory agencies, should
result in relatively small if any losses
to depositors.”
One way to implement this strategy is
to install an early waning systems that
will specify a numerical value of a
capital trip-wires for supervisory sanction.
Once an institution reaches this capital
threshold closure and liquidation of
the institution should be mandatory.
However, in determining such value,
an adjusted value rather than book value
of the capital should be used.
The fundamental principle relating to
regulation of the third layer deposit
institutions is the disclosure. While
regulators and supervisors ensure that
institutions disclose the specified
information to enable savers to make
appropriate decisions, it is necessary
for supervisors to add to such disclosure
the information they already possess
as a result of independent supervision
but is concealed from the public. As
stated by Kaufman and Scott, members
of the US Shadow Financial Regulatory
Committee, “the obvious lesson
is that banking supervisors should not
impede, but instead enhance, the disclosure
of information about the financial condition
of banking institutions. Depositors
have done much better than they are
usually given credit for in distinguishing
insolvent from solvent banks, and shutting
down the former through runs faster
than supervisors might have been inclined
to do. But it is not necessary to definitively
resolve that debate in order to draw
lessons from it for the banking agencies.
The current practice of mandatory secrecy
examination reports and supervisory
rating, a sceptic might argue, is apparently
founded either on the notion that depositor
confidence must be based on ignorance
or on the proposition that management
is willing to reveal negative information
to examiners because they believe nothing
much will result from it, compared to
the consequences of telling the world
at large, or perhaps on the reluctance
of regulators to face a market test.
None of these positions is reassuring.”
The
contribution by Mr Sanjaya Kalidasa
BSc, by collection of data, statistical
analysis and building of regression
model Dr Priyal Perera, by suggestion
made to improve the framework
of the study and recommendation,
and Ms Jayani Amarasiri, by editing
the draft paper, is hereby acknowledged.
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This
annex describes the statistical methods
used to determine the significance of
the variables of interest, i.e. interest
rate and risk measure.
For
this purpose a regression analysis was
carried out to determine the relationship
between the two variables. The objective
is to test whether the coefficient of
the explanatory variable is zero or
not.
Regression
is a statistical technique used in determining
the relationship between a variable,
known as response variables (y), and
other variables known as explanatory
variables (x). In this study the response
variable y is,
y = Interest
rate of one year deposits
And x = Risk measure (r)
Which is given by r =1/ (WL L+ WCC +
WRE) + S.
Since
the data roughly follows the normal
distribution (Graph 1) and the Pearson
Correlation Coefficient, which explains
the linearity of a relationship is 0.740
, the following linear regression model
(y = a + bx, in standard notation) was
derived.
Rate = 5.20
+ 0.733 Risk
The objective is to check the significance
of the relationship. Further, if the gradient
of the equation was zero, the risk would
not explain the interest rate. Hence,
the under-mentioned tests would be carried
out to test the hypothesis.
“The gradient (b) equals to zero
against the gradient does not equal
to zero”
The following
three tests were used in this regard
at the 95% probability level.
i.
In
this test, the following test statistic
is used.
Fcal = , where is the value estimated
at the given , using the derived regression
equation is the mean and the n gives
the sample size. Fcal follows the F-
Distribution on (1,n-2) degrees of freedom.
Hence
if the F1, n-2 value given by the F-
Distribution is less than the value
calculated for the data, the hypothesis
is rejected.
In
NBI data, the Fcal obtained by the Package
MINITAB stands at 21.76 and F1,18 is
4.54 in F distribution. Hence the hypothesis
is rejected. It explains that at a 95%
confident level, the gradient of the
regression model could not be zero.
The
statistic tcal = for this test. Here
b represents the value obtained for
the gradient by the regression and is
the value expected.. More simply it
is the value that would be obtained
theoretically. Hence for this NBI data,
tcal = , as the objective is to check
the probability of obtaining zero for
the gradient. tcal follows the student
t distribution on (n-2) degrees of freedom.
Hence
if the tn-2 value given by the t- distribution
is less than the calculated value using
the above statistic, the hypothesis
will be rejected.
In
this study, the tcal stands at 4.674
while t18 = 1.734. Hence the hypothesis
is rejected explaining that at a 95%
confidence level, the gradient could
not be zero.
This
method is another approach of the t-
Test. Instead of checking for the gradient
to be zero, an interval for the gradient
is derived.
In
this regard, the same statistic t is
used in the following manner.
The test shows that at a 95% confidence
level, the gradient lies in the range
(0.461, 1.005). It further explains
that the gradient of the regressed equation
of
Rate = 5.20
+ 0.733* Risk
Therefore
gradient could not be zero.
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Credit
Unions |
Building
Societies |
| |
| Cash
and liquid assets |
| Notes
and coins |
| Deposits
at call |
| Other
liquid assets |
| Total
cash and liquid assets |
| |
| Government
securities |
| Other
securities |
| |
| Loans
and advances |
| Housing
loans |
| Other
loans and advances |
| |
| Other
investments |
| Fixed
assets |
| Intangible
assets |
| Other |
| |
| Total
assets ($ billion) |
| Number
of institutions |
|
Small |
Medium |
Large |
All |
| |
| 0.5 |
| 1.7 |
| 0.3 |
| 3.1 |
| |
| 2.8 |
| 10.1 |
| |
| |
| 66.7 |
| 14.1 |
| |
| 1.4 |
| 1.0 |
| 0.1 |
| 0.7 |
| |
| 12.7 |
| 16 |
|
| As
a percentage of tatal assets |
| |
| 0.9 |
| 12.3 |
| 11.2 |
| 24.3 |
| |
| 0.6 |
| 3.0 |
| |
| |
| 36.5 |
| 32.6 |
| |
| 0.4 |
| 1.5 |
| 0.0 |
| 1.0 |
| |
| 0.5 |
| 65 |
|
| |
| 0.9 |
| 9.1 |
| 5.5 |
| 15.5 |
| |
| 0.3 |
| 6.6 |
| |
| |
| 43.4 |
| 31.1 |
| |
| 0.5 |
| 1.6 |
| 0.0 |
| 1.0 |
| |
| 3.2 |
| 71 |
|
| |
| 0.8 |
| 3.6 |
| 3.4 |
| 8.5 |
| |
| 0.0 |
| 7.7 |
| |
| |
| 53.6 |
| 27.1 |
| |
| 0.5 |
| 1.6 |
| 0.0 |
| 1.0 |
| |
| 21.6 |
| 64 |
|
| |
| 0.8 |
| 4.5 |
| 3.8 |
| 9.7 |
| |
| 0.1 |
| 7.4 |
| |
| |
| 51.9 |
| 27.7 |
| |
| 0.5 |
| 1.6 |
| 0.0 |
| 0.1 |
| |
| 25.4 |
| 200 |
|
 |
Mr. Abeyaratna is a Senior Vice
President of DFCC Bank and theHead
of Treasury and Resource Development
Division. He is a Non-Executive
Directory of DFCC Stock Brokers
Ltd and W.M.Mendis & Co. Ltd..
Mr. Abeyaratna held the position
of Executive Director and Chief
Executive Officer of the Unit
Trust Management Co. Ltd. Managers
of Ceybank Unit Trust and Century
Growth Fund. He was also a Non-Executive
Director of Ceybank Securities
Ltd. a primary Dealer of Government
securities licensed by Central
Bank of Sri Lanka and Staff Consultant
of Ernst & Young, Colombo
Office in the Management Consultancy
Division.
Mr.
Abeyaratna is an associate member
of the Institute of Chartered
Accountant of Sri Lanka (ICASL),
Chartered Financial Analyst of
USA (CFA) and passed Finalist
of the Chartered Institute of
Management Accountant of UK (CIMA).
He is a Diploma holder of Marketing
Management.
He has presented several technical
papers in the areas of primary
share issues, capital market,
risk management, debt markets
etc. He is a member and head of
several technical committees appointed
by SEC, ICASL, CIMA Colombo office,
SLASIA etc. He has attended several
workshops in Sri Lanka and abroad.
He is a visiting lecturer at the
Central Bank Centre forBanking
Studies and the Institute of Bankers
– Sri Lanka and University
of Southern Queensland –
MBA programme atICASL.
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